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SanDisk, Toshiba aim to reclaim NAND process lead
The SanDisk-Toshiba duo is looking to take back the process technology lead in NAND—again.
The team of SanDisk Corp. and Toshiba Corp. is set to roll out a 24nm NAND flash part in 2H 10, thereby regaining the lead from the duo of Intel Corp. and Micron Technology Inc., according to an analyst. SanDisk and Toshiba have a joint manufacturing venture in NAND in Japan. In January, Intel and Micron regained the process technology lead in NAND flash, by rolling out the first in a family of 25nm devices. SanDisk-Toshiba will have both 2bit-per-cell and 3bit-per-cell, 24nm part, according to SanDisk's roadmap. In contrast, the Intel-Micron team is scaling with more traditional 2bit-per-cell devices. "We expect SanDisk to be (about) 70 percent ramped on 32nm exiting '10, with 24nm ramp starting in late 2H," said Dunham Winoto, an analyst with Avian Securities LLC (Boston), in a report based on SanDisk's analyst meeting late last week. "By comparison, Micron is 100 percent on 34nm and to start ramping 25nm in Q2, at least three-to-four quarters ahead on shrinks but behind on the ramp on 3bits." Indeed, SanDisk-Toshiba and Intel-Micron have different views about the NAND market. At the event, "SanDisk shared its process node roadmap, reiterating its belief that x3 (3bit-per-cell) combined with node shrink as the most optimal way to reduce unit cost. This is in contrast with Micron's strategy of relying more on shrinks and less on x3 (3bit-per-cell)," Winoto said. According to the analyst, there are two reasons for the discrepancies: 1) Micron likely has greater concentration of OEMs using embedded NAND; and 2) SanDisk owns more IP for 3bit-per-cell. Also at the event, SanDisk raised its capital spending for 2010 to $700 to 900 million, up from $370 million in 2009, the analyst said. This is below the $1.6 billion average capital spending figures from 2006 to 2008, it was noted.
The boost in 2010 spending is due to SanDisk's Fab 4 plant in Japan, which is jumping from 125,000 to 165,000 wafers per month, according to the report. Like all NAND players, SanDisk is seeing a strong NAND market. "The tone of the (SanDisk analyst) meeting was very upbeat, which is a difference from a year ago when the company had to endure what was probably the worst period in its entire history," Winoto said. "Recall that the 1H of last year set the bottom of what was the worst NAND market with supply far outstripping demand that led to a downward price spiral that lasted nearly three years." Race leader
Now, the big question is clear: Who is leading in the process technology race in NAND? At one time, Intel and Micron had the lead. The Intel-Micron duo recently rolled out a 34nm NAND part. The two companies have a joint NAND venture, dubbed IM Flash Technologies LLC. Then, the SanDisk-Toshiba duo announced a 32nm part. More recently, Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd rolled out a 30nm device. Another player, Hynix Semiconductor Inc., has a 26nm device waiting in the wings. Then, Intel and Micron regained the process technology lead with the 25nm part. So who's the leader? "At 24nm, Toshiba/SanDisk takes the lead—if that is what you want to call it," said Alan Niebel, CEO of Web-Feet Research, a research firm. "At 24-27nm, there is not much of a lead, since it depends on where in the trench it is measured," he said. "SanDisk will bring out the x2 (2bit-per-cell) first and shortly follow with the x3 (3bit-per-cell). What is important is who is first to market. IM Flash will be first with 25nm at x2 (2bit-per-cell) while SanDisk-Toshiba will be first at x3 (3bit-per-cell) that will enable them to generate huge volumes coming from Fab 4 and some in Fab 3." - Mark LaPedus
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發表于 2010-3-4 08:51:39
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